American families preparing for Thanksgiving 2025 can breathe a sigh of relief, as the cost of a traditional holiday meal has plummeted by nearly 10% compared to last year. According to the latest report from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the average price for a classic Thanksgiving dinner serving 10 people now stands at around $59.95, down from $66.61 in 2024. This decline signals a welcome respite from years of soaring food prices driven by inflation, potentially boosting consumer spending during the holiday season.
The drop comes as broader economic indicators show food prices stabilizing after a turbulent period marked by supply chain disruptions and global events. With inflation cooling to 2.5% year-over-year as of October 2025, per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, grocery bills are becoming more manageable for households across the nation. This shift not only eases the financial burden on families but also highlights a turning point in post-pandemic recovery, where holiday traditions can reclaim their place without the sting of escalating costs.
Turkey Prices Lead the Charge in Holiday Savings
At the heart of the Thanksgiving feast, turkey prices have seen the most dramatic reduction, falling by 15% to an average of $28.35 for a 16-pound bird. This makes the iconic centerpiece of the meal more accessible than ever, according to AFBF spokesperson Jessica Waldron. “Turkey farmers have benefited from improved feed costs and higher yields this year, passing those savings directly to consumers,” Waldron explained in a recent interview.
Historically, turkey prices spiked during the height of inflation in 2022 and 2023, reaching over $2.50 per pound in some regions. But with corn and soybean prices—key inputs for poultry feed—down 20% from their peaks, producers are reporting healthier margins without the need to inflate retail costs. For instance, a survey by the National Turkey Federation revealed that wholesale prices have stabilized at $1.75 per pound nationwide, a level not seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
This affordability extends to preparation essentials too. Stuffing ingredients like bread and celery have dipped 8%, while fresh cranberries are 12% cheaper, per USDA market data. Families in the Midwest, a major turkey-producing region, are particularly feeling the benefits, with local grocers like Kroger and Whole Foods offering promotions that could shave another 5-10% off the bill for bulk purchases.
Vegetable and Side Dish Costs Reflect Broader Food Price Relief
Beyond the main course, the sides that define Thanksgiving tables are also more budget-friendly this year. Sweet potatoes, a staple in many recipes, have decreased by 11% to $1.28 per pound, while pumpkin pie filling ingredients like canned pumpkin puree are down 9%. These reductions are attributed to bumper harvests in key agricultural states such as California and North Carolina, where favorable weather conditions boosted yields by up to 15% over 2024.
The AFBF’s annual price survey breaks down the meal further: a 3-pound bag of onions now costs $1.38 (down 5%), and a 12-ounce bag of fresh green beans is $2.25 (a 7% drop). Even dessert components, including a frozen pie crust at $3.16 (unchanged but paired with cheaper fillings), contribute to the overall savings. “These modest declines in everyday produce add up quickly for families hosting large gatherings,” noted economist Dr. Elena Ramirez from the University of Chicago, who specializes in consumer spending patterns.
Inflation’s role in these trends cannot be overstated. As food-at-home prices rose 11.4% cumulatively from 2021 to 2023, many households cut back on holiday extravagance. Now, with monthly food price increases averaging just 0.2% in 2025, per BLS figures, consumer spending on groceries is rebounding. Retail analysts at Nielsen predict a 4% uptick in holiday food purchases, as families feel confident splurging on extras like artisanal rolls or organic variants without breaking the bank.
Consumer Spending Boost from Easing Holiday Budget Pressures
The ripple effects of lower food prices are already evident in consumer behavior. A recent Gallup poll indicates that 62% of Americans plan to host Thanksgiving dinners this year, up from 55% in 2024, attributing the increase to perceived affordability. This surge in participation could inject an additional $2.5 billion into the economy through related spending on tableware, decorations, and travel.
For low- and middle-income families, the impact is profound. The USDA’s Economic Research Service reports that food insecurity affected 13.5% of U.S. households last year, often exacerbated by holiday costs. With 2025’s meal averaging $5.99 per person—cheaper than a fast-food family meal—experts foresee reduced strain. “This price ease is a game-changer for consumer spending, allowing reallocations to other holiday joys like gifts or experiences,” said retail consultant Mark Thompson of Deloitte Insights.
Online shopping trends underscore this optimism. Platforms like Amazon and Instacart have seen a 25% jump in Thanksgiving meal kit searches, with bundles priced under $50 for four servings. Brick-and-mortar stores are responding with loyalty programs; for example, Walmart’s rollback on turkey and stuffing has driven foot traffic up 18% in early November. Yet, challenges persist: urban areas like New York and Los Angeles report 3-5% higher costs due to logistics, though still below 2024 levels.
Regional Spotlights: How Costs Vary Across the U.S.
- In the South, where sweet tea and cornbread sides are popular, overall meal costs average $55, thanks to local pecan and yam abundance.
- Midwestern families enjoy the lowest turkey prices at $1.50 per pound, pushing totals to $52.
- On the West Coast, organic options inflate averages to $65, but sales mitigate the difference.
These variations highlight how inflation’s cooling unevenly benefits regions, but the national trend toward savings remains strong.
Experts Predict Sustained Relief in Food Prices Through 2026
Looking ahead, economists are cautiously optimistic about continued moderation in food prices. The Federal Reserve’s latest projections suggest inflation will hover around 2% through 2026, supported by steady energy costs and resolved trade tensions. For Thanksgiving enthusiasts, this means future holidays could maintain or even further reduce costs, fostering more inclusive celebrations.
Agricultural forecasts from the USDA point to stable supply chains, with global wheat and dairy prices—key for rolls and cheeses—expected to fall another 5-7%. However, potential wild cards like weather anomalies or geopolitical shifts could introduce volatility. “While 2025 marks a recovery milestone, proactive policies on farm subsidies will be crucial for locking in these gains,” advised policy analyst Sarah Kline from the Brookings Institution.
As consumer spending rebounds, the holiday season could serve as a bellwether for broader economic health. Retailers anticipate strong Black Friday tie-ins with grocery deals, potentially extending the Thanksgiving savings into year-end festivities. Families are already sharing tips on social media, from bulk buying strategies to recipe swaps that maximize value without sacrificing flavor. In essence, this year’s Thanksgiving isn’t just cheaper—it’s a symbol of resilience, inviting more Americans to gather around the table with gratitude for both the meal and the moment.
With these developments, the 2025 holiday landscape promises not only fiscal relief but also a renewed sense of normalcy, as inflation’s grip loosens and food prices align more closely with pre-pandemic norms. As preparations ramp up, the focus shifts from scrimping to savoring traditions that define the season.
