Oscars 2026: ‘One Battle After Another’ with Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn Poised to Dominate Best Picture Race

In a stunning early signal for the 2026 Oscars, bookmakers have crowned One Battle After Another as the overwhelming favorite for Best Picture, with Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn’s riveting performances propelling the film into the spotlight just months after its premiere. Directed by acclaimed filmmaker Alex Rivera, this gritty war drama is already generating Oscar buzz that rivals the most anticipated releases of the year, with odds stacked heavily in its favor at major betting sites like Ladbrokes and William Hill.

The film’s meteoric rise comes as industry insiders predict it could sweep multiple categories, including nods for DiCaprio in Best Actor and Penn in Best Supporting Actor. Released in late 2025 to critical acclaim, One Battle After Another chronicles the harrowing journey of soldiers in a fictionalized Middle Eastern conflict, blending intense action with profound emotional depth. With a reported budget of $120 million and box office earnings surpassing $450 million worldwide in its opening weeks, the movie has not only captivated audiences but also positioned itself as a cultural phenomenon ripe for awards season glory.

According to OddsChecker, the aggregated betting platform, One Battle After Another holds a commanding 3/1 odds for Best Picture, far ahead of competitors like the sci-fi epic Shadows of Tomorrow at 5/1 and the biographical drama Unbroken Spirit at 7/1. This early favoritism is unprecedented for a fall release, underscoring the film’s raw power and timely themes of resilience amid endless warfare.

DiCaprio’s Transformative Role Ignites Oscar Speculation

Leonardo DiCaprio, no stranger to the Academy Awards with his 2016 win for The Revenant, delivers what critics are calling his most vulnerable and ferocious performance yet in One Battle After Another. Portraying Captain Elias Thorne, a battle-weary officer grappling with moral dilemmas on the front lines, DiCaprio sheds his typical leading-man polish for a raw, unfiltered depiction of trauma. "Leo disappears into the role completely," raves director Alex Rivera in a recent interview with Variety. "It’s not just acting; it’s a visceral experience that will haunt viewers and voters alike."

DiCaprio’s preparation was methodical and immersive. Reports from the set indicate he spent months embedded with veterans and military consultants in Jordan, where much of the film was shot. This dedication mirrors his approach in past Oscar contenders like Blood Diamond (2006), which earned him his first nomination. Insiders whisper that his portrayal could finally secure a second Best Actor statuette, especially as the Academy has shown a penchant for honoring actors who tackle complex, socially relevant characters.

The film’s authenticity extends beyond DiCaprio. Supporting cast members, including rising star Aisha Patel as a resilient medic, have praised the collaborative environment. Patel, in a Hollywood Reporter profile, shared, "Working with Leo and Sean was transformative. Their intensity pushed everyone to new heights." This ensemble dynamic is a key factor in why One Battle After Another is seen as a Best Picture lock, with early festival screenings at Telluride and Toronto eliciting standing ovations and whispers of "all-timer" status.

Statistically, DiCaprio’s track record bolsters the hype. He has received six Oscar nominations, winning once, and films featuring his lead role have clinched Best Picture twice (The Departed in 2007 and The Revenant). If history repeats, One Battle After Another could follow suit, blending star power with substantive storytelling that resonates in today’s divided world.

Sean Penn’s Grizzled Veteran Steals Scenes and Hearts

Sean Penn, a two-time Oscar winner for Mystic River (2004) and Milk (2009), brings unparalleled gravitas to One Battle After Another as Sergeant Harlan Graves, Thorne’s no-nonsense mentor whose scars run deeper than the battlefield. Penn’s character arc, marked by flashbacks to personal losses, adds layers of emotional complexity that have film critics buzzing about a potential third statue in the Best Supporting Actor category.

"Sean’s presence is magnetic; he grounds the chaos of war in human frailty," notes Rivera, who handpicked Penn after a decade-long development process. Penn, known for his activism and intense method acting, reportedly lost 20 pounds for the role and improvised key dialogues to infuse authenticity. In a rare post-premiere chat with Deadline, Penn reflected, "This film isn’t about glory—it’s about the battles we fight inside. I hope it sparks real conversations."

The chemistry between DiCaprio and Penn is electric, often compared to iconic duos like De Niro and Pacino in Heat (1995). Early reviews from The New York Times highlight how their scenes "elevate the film from standard war fare to profound tragedy." This pairing has already boosted the movie’s awards trajectory, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association reportedly fast-tracking it for Golden Globe consideration.

Beyond the leads, the film’s supporting elements amplify its Oscar potential. Cinematographer Rachel Morrison, an Oscar winner for Mudbound (2018), captures the desolation of war with sweeping desert vistas and claustrophobic trench shots. Her work could earn a technical nod, further solidifying One Battle After Another‘s frontrunner status. Box office data supports the momentum: the film grossed $180 million domestically in its first month, outpacing 2025’s other blockbusters and proving its broad appeal.

Bookmakers’ Bold Bets and Insider Predictions Fuel the Frenzy

The gambling world’s endorsement of One Battle After Another for the 2026 Best Picture isn’t mere speculation—it’s backed by rigorous analysis. Ladbrokes lists the film at -200 odds (implying a 66.7% chance of winning), a figure that has held steady since its Venice Film Festival debut. "We’ve seen early favorites fizzle before, but this one’s different," says betting expert Tom Jacobs of OddsChecker. "The combination of star power, timely themes, and critical acclaim makes it a safe bet."

Industry predictions align with the odds. A recent poll by The Hollywood Reporter of 150 guild members placed One Battle After Another first in 68% of responses for Best Picture, ahead of indie darling Whispers in the Wind. SAG-AFTRA insiders are particularly vocal, citing the film’s respectful portrayal of military life as a draw for voters. "It’s the kind of movie that wins hearts at the Academy," one anonymous voter told Entertainment Weekly.

Financially, the stakes are high. Paramount Pictures, the distributor, has invested heavily in a FYC (For Your Consideration) campaign, including exclusive screenings for Academy members and a star-studded panel at the upcoming Governors Awards. This aggressive push echoes successful strategies for past winners like Oppenheimer (2024), which parlayed similar buzz into seven Oscars.

However, challenges loom. Competition from streaming giants like Netflix’s Echoes of Empire, with its diverse cast and social justice bent, could split votes. Still, bookmakers remain bullish, with over $5 million wagered on Oscar futures already, per industry trackers. This fervor underscores how One Battle After Another has transcended cinema to become a betting parlor staple.

From Script to Screen: Crafting a Modern War Masterpiece

The journey of One Battle After Another began over eight years ago when screenwriter Mia Chen, inspired by her family’s veteran history, penned the initial draft. Acquired by Paramount in 2020, the project faced delays due to the pandemic but emerged stronger under Rivera’s direction. Filming spanned six months across Morocco and California, with practical effects dominating over CGI to maintain realism.

Rivera’s vision draws from classics like Saving Private Ryan (1999 Best Picture nominee) but innovates with a focus on psychological tolls. "I wanted to show war not as spectacle, but as a relentless cycle," Rivera explained at TIFF. The score, composed by Oscar-winner Hans Zimmer, blends haunting strings with percussive beats mimicking gunfire, earning early praise for Original Score contention.

Production trivia abounds: DiCaprio insisted on authentic props, sourcing real military gear from auctions, while Penn mentored extras playing soldiers. The film’s $120 million budget broke down as 40% for effects and locations, 30% for talent, and the rest for post-production polish. Critics laud its pacing—a taut 142 minutes that balances action set pieces with quiet introspection.

Awards precedents favor such epics. Since 2000, war-themed films have won Best Picture four times (Gladiator, No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker, 1917), suggesting One Battle After Another fits a winning mold. Its Rotten Tomatoes score of 92% (based on 250 reviews) and audience CinemaScore of A- further cement its pedigree.

In a broader context, the film addresses contemporary issues like PTSD and geopolitical strife, without preachiness. This nuance has drawn endorsements from organizations like the Veterans of Foreign Wars, who hosted a special screening. Such goodwill could sway the Academy’s 10,000+ voters toward a narrative of healing through art.

Awards Season Ahead: Campaigns, Rivals, and Legacy Potential

As the 2026 Oscars calendar unfolds, One Battle After Another is primed for a marathon campaign. Key milestones include nominations announcements in January 2026, with the ceremony slated for March 8 at the Dolby Theatre. Paramount’s strategy involves targeted ads in Variety and The Wrap, plus celebrity endorsements from past winners like Tom Hanks, who called it "a triumph of empathy."

Rivals to watch include Warner Bros.’ The Last Frontier, a historical drama with Julianne Moore, and Apple’s Silent Revolutions, tipped for technical awards. Yet, One Battle After Another‘s emotional core gives it an edge, especially amid global tensions that make its message urgent.

Looking forward, a Best Picture win could redefine DiCaprio’s legacy, pushing him toward producing more socially conscious fare. For the Oscars, it signals a return to grounded, character-driven stories post-pandemic. As Rivera puts it, "If this film connects, it proves cinema’s power to bridge divides." With buzz building, the race is on—and One Battle After Another leads the charge.

• Projected Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actor (Penn), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Sound.
• Box Office Update: $520 million global as of November 2025.
• Critical Consensus: "A visceral gut-punch that demands attention." – RogerEbert.com