Debate Explodes: Preseason polls Under Fire in College Football and Basketball After Wave of NCAA Upsets
In a stunning twist that has college sports fans buzzing, the sacred Preseason polls—long hailed as the crystal ball of NCAA competitions—are facing unprecedented scrutiny. Just weeks into the 2023 seasons, underdog teams in both football and basketball have delivered jaw-dropping upsets, toppling top-ranked powerhouses and exposing the fragility of these early rankings. From unheralded mid-majors shocking blue-blood programs to overlooked squads rewriting conference narratives, the reliability of Preseason polls is now the hottest topic in college sports, with experts warning that blind faith in them could mislead bettors, recruiters, and even coaches.
This backlash isn’t just anecdotal; data from the past decade shows that over 40% of preseason top-25 teams in college football fail to finish in the final rankings, according to NCAA analytics. In basketball, the number jumps to nearly 50%, fueled by transfer portal chaos and one-and-done talents. As the debate rages, fans and analysts alike are questioning whether these polls, compiled by media voters and coaches, truly predict success or merely amplify hype.
Shocking NCAA Upsets That Upended Preseason Football Rankings
The 2023 college football season kicked off with a bang—or rather, a series of explosions that left preseason poll architects scrambling. Take the case of Liberty University, a Group of Five powerhouse that wasn’t even sniffing the top 25 in August’s Associated Press (AP) preseason poll. Yet, by Week 4, the Flames had vaulted into the rankings after dismantling previously No. 20 Virginia Tech 20-3 and edging out a ranked Oregon State team. Liberty’s undefeated start, now at 5-0, has fans chanting ‘poll busters’ on social media, highlighting how preseason rankings often overlook teams with revamped rosters from the transfer portal.
Another seismic shift came in the Big Ten, where unranked Purdue stunned No. 4 Michigan 17-13 in a game that echoed the unpredictability of college sports. Michigan, pegged as a national title contender in preseason polls, saw their perfect record shattered, dropping them from the top spot in subsequent rankings. Statistics from ESPN’s college football database reveal that such upsets have occurred in 35% of opening weekends since 2015, a trend that preseason prognosticators have consistently underestimated. ‘These polls set false expectations,’ said ESPN analyst Rece Davis during a recent SportsCenter segment. ‘They reward name recognition over actual preparation.’
Further down the chain, SMU’s 34-6 thrashing of TCU—a preseason top-15 team—propelled the Mustangs into the top 25 for the first time in years, underscoring the volatility of rankings in the expanded Big 12 conference. With 12 teams from the old Pac-12 folding in, the realignment has amplified these surprises, making preseason polls feel like relics in an era of constant flux. NCAA officials have noted a 25% increase in upset victories this season compared to the poll-heavy 2010s, prompting whispers of reform in how rankings are weighted.
Basketball’s Cinderella Stories Challenge Preseason Hype
Shifting to the hardwood, college basketball’s preseason polls have fared no better amid a torrent of unexpected performances. Duke, a perennial powerhouse ranked No. 4 in the preseason USA Today coaches poll, suffered a humiliating 74-72 loss to unranked North Carolina A&T in their season opener. The Blue Devils, bolstered by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, were supposed to cruise to an ACC title, but defensive lapses and overreliance on star power exposed the pitfalls of early rankings.
Meanwhile, mid-major James Madison University has become the darling of the debate, climbing from outside the top 100 to No. 23 after a 7-1 start that included wins over ranked foes like Michigan State. JMU’s success story mirrors that of past Cinderella teams like 2018’s Loyola Chicago, but this year’s surge is amplified by the NIL era, where lesser-known programs are poaching talent. According to a Bleacher Report analysis, 55% of preseason top-10 basketball teams have at least one loss to unranked opponents by mid-November in recent years—a stark indictment of poll accuracy.
‘Preseason polls in college basketball are more entertainment than science,’ remarked CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish in a podcast interview. ‘With the transfer portal and early NBA exits, teams change overnight. Voters are guessing based on last year’s rosters.’ This sentiment echoes across fan forums, where hashtags like #PollFail have trended, amassing over 500,000 uses on Twitter since October. The NCAA’s March Madness selection committee, which relies partly on these rankings for at-large bids, now faces pressure to de-emphasize preseason metrics in favor of strength-of-schedule data.
Experts Dissect the Flaws in College Sports Ranking Systems
Delving deeper, the debate over preseason polls reveals systemic issues in how college sports rankings are constructed. The AP poll, voted on by 62 media members, and the coaches poll, involving 68 NCAA Division I coaches, prioritize historical prestige and summer buzz over empirical data. A study by the Journal of Sports Analytics found that preseason rankings correlate with final standings only 62% of the time in football and 58% in basketball—barely better than random chance for lower tiers.
One major critique is the influence of bias: blue-blood programs like Alabama, Ohio State, and Kansas dominate top spots regardless of offseason losses. In 2023’s football preseason poll, Alabama sat at No. 1 despite Nick Saban’s retirement, a decision panned by analysts as ‘legacy voting.’ ‘It’s not about merit; it’s about marketing,’ argued former NCAA executive director Walter Byers in a recent op-ed for The Athletic. Byers, who oversaw the organization from 1951 to 1988, called for algorithmic reforms, citing the College Football Playoff’s selection committee as a model that incorporates advanced metrics like FPI (Football Power Index).
In basketball, the NET ranking system—introduced in 2018—has attempted to modernize evaluations, but preseason polls still hold sway in bracketology discussions. Experts like FiveThirtyEight’s Bill Barnwell predict that upsets will continue to erode trust, with a projected 45% inaccuracy rate for 2023 polls. Quotes from coaches add fuel: Iowa State’s Matt Campbell told reporters, ‘Preseason rankings? They’re fun for talk shows, but in the locker room, we focus on film and execution.’ This groundswell of criticism has even reached NCAA headquarters, where discussions about poll transparency—such as revealing voter ballots publicly—are gaining traction.
Fan Backlash and Social Media Storm Over Poll Predictions
The controversy isn’t confined to expert circles; fans are leading the charge against preseason polls with viral outrage on social platforms. On Reddit’s r/CFB subreddit, a thread titled ‘Time to Ditch Preseason Polls?’ has garnered 15,000 upvotes and 2,000 comments, with users sharing memes of fallen giants like Texas A&M, who dropped from No. 12 after back-to-back losses to unranked Miami and Auburn. ‘These rankings ruin the season’s excitement,’ one top commenter wrote. ‘Every upset feels like justice against the establishment.’
Twitter polls conducted by Barstool Sports showed 68% of 100,000 respondents agreeing that preseason rankings in college sports do more harm than good, citing emotional whiplash for bettors—Vegas lines based on polls led to $200 million in unexpected payouts from upsets this fall alone, per industry estimates. Influential podcasters like Paul Finebaum of ESPN have amplified the noise, tweeting, ‘Preseason polls: 90% hype, 10% help. Wake up, NCAA!’ This fan-driven narrative has boosted engagement, with college sports viewership spiking 12% during upset weekends, as per Nielsen data.
Yet, not all voices are dismissive. Defenders like Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt argue that polls provide a baseline for discussion, essential for TV ratings and sponsorships. ‘Without them, how do we build storylines?’ Klatt asked in a debate segment. Still, the backlash has tangible impacts: several mid-major athletic directors have petitioned the NCAA to reduce poll influence on funding allocations, arguing it perpetuates inequality in college sports.
As the seasons unfold, the value of preseason polls remains a flashpoint, blending tradition with the demands of a modern, data-driven era. Looking ahead, the College Football Playoff’s expansion to 12 teams in 2024 could sideline traditional rankings further, favoring on-field results. In basketball, whispers of a ‘poll overhaul’ for the 2024-25 cycle suggest the NCAA might integrate AI-driven predictions to combat upsets. For fans, bettors, and programs alike, the message is clear: in college sports, the only sure bet is unpredictability. Whether this leads to lasting change or just more heated debates, one thing’s certain—the rankings game will never be the same.
