College Football Playoff Projections: Top 12 Teams After Week 9’s Shocking Upsets and Statement Wins

In a Week 9 that delivered heart-pounding drama across the College Football landscape, the NCAA playoff picture has never been more chaotic. With Ole Miss stunning top-ranked Georgia 28-25 in a thriller that sent shockwaves through the SEC, and Penn State dismantling Ohio State 24-21 on the road, the latest projections for the College Football Playoff top 12 are wide open. Experts are scrambling to adjust their rankings, as several bubble teams like Miami and Notre Dame made compelling cases for inclusion while perennial powers like Alabama and Oregon fought to maintain their grip on the top spots.

Ole Miss Shocker Upends Georgia: SEC’s New Power Dynamic

The biggest story from Week 9 in College Football came from Oxford, Mississippi, where the Rebels pulled off a stunning upset against the previously unbeaten Georgia Bulldogs. Trailing 25-21 late in the fourth quarter, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart orchestrated a 75-yard game-winning drive, capping it with a 12-yard touchdown pass to Tre Harris with just 1:47 left on the clock. This victory not only ended Georgia’s 20-game winning streak but also propelled Ole Miss into the national conversation for the College Football Playoff.

Georgia, who entered Week 9 as the consensus No. 1 team in the NCAA rankings, now faces a must-win stretch to reclaim their spot. Head coach Kirby Smart reflected post-game, ‘We got outplayed in the clutch moments, but this team has the heart to bounce back. The playoff is still ours to take.’ Statistically, Ole Miss dominated on the ground, rushing for 212 yards compared to Georgia’s 98, highlighting a defensive lapse for the Bulldogs that allowed 4.8 yards per carry.

This upset has ripple effects throughout the SEC, a conference that continues to boast multiple playoff contenders. With the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format debuting this season, Ole Miss’s resume now includes wins over Georgia and a top-25 LSU team earlier in the year. Projections from ESPN’s College Football Playoff committee mock rankings now slot the Rebels at No. 7, a jump of eight spots from pre-Week 9 polls. As the regular season hits its midpoint, this result underscores how volatile the path to the playoff can be in the nation’s toughest conference.

Penn State’s Road Triumph Over Ohio State Fuels Big Ten Chaos

Up north, the Big Ten delivered its own playoff-altering moment as Penn State traveled to Columbus and edged out Ohio State in a defensive masterpiece. The Nittany Lions’ defense, led by linebacker Abdul Carter’s two sacks and an interception, held Ohio State to just 289 total yards—the Buckeyes’ lowest output since 2019. Penn State’s Drew Allar threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns, but it was a gritty 45-yard field goal by kicker Drew Taylor as time expired that sealed the 24-21 victory.

Ohio State, who were riding a six-game winning streak and projected as a top-3 seed entering Week 9, now sit at 7-1 with questions swirling about their consistency. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day admitted, ‘We beat ourselves with penalties and missed opportunities. This loss stings, but it’s a wake-up call for the playoff push.’ Penn State, meanwhile, improves to 8-0 and vaults into the No. 4 spot in early College Football Playoff projections, their first undefeated start since 2016.

The Big Ten’s playoff implications are massive here. With Ohio State’s loss, the conference now has four legitimate top-10 teams, intensifying the race for the automatic bid and at-large spots. According to NCAA data, Penn State’s strength of schedule ranks 12th nationally, bolstered by this marquee win. As Week 10 approaches, the Nittany Lions’ path includes winnable games against Indiana and Maryland, positioning them for a potential top seed if they maintain their momentum.

Oregon and Texas Hold Firm: West Coast and Lone Star Stars Shine

While upsets dominated the headlines, Oregon and Texas delivered statement wins that solidified their places in the College Football Playoff top 12. The Ducks, hosting Michigan in a primetime showdown, cruised to a 38-17 victory behind running back Jordan James’s 152 yards and two scores. Oregon’s defense forced three turnovers, including a pick-six, showcasing why they’re the No. 2 team in the latest AP rankings and projected as the top seed in playoff mocks.

Coach Dan Lanning praised his team’s depth: ‘We played complementary football from start to finish. This is the standard for a playoff contender.’ Oregon’s 9-0 record includes victories over Ohio State and Michigan, giving them the strongest resume in College Football right now. Their offensive efficiency rating of 92.4 (third in the NCAA) has analysts buzzing about a potential undefeated run to the Big Ten Championship.

In the Lone Star State, Texas didn’t skip a beat without injured quarterback Quinn Ewers, as backup Arch Manning threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns in a 35-13 dismantling of Vanderbilt. The Longhorns’ defense, ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, pitched a shutout in the second half. This win keeps Texas at 8-0 and locked in at No. 3 in Week 9 playoff projections. Head coach Steve Sarkisian noted, ‘Arch stepped up big time. Our depth is our superpower in this playoff format.’

Texas’s schedule strengthens further with upcoming games against Florida and Georgia in the SEC slate, tests that could cement their status as a top contender. Both Oregon and Texas exemplify how dominant performances in Week 9 have clarified the playoff hierarchy for West Coast and Southern powerhouses.

Bubble Watch: Miami, Notre Dame, and the Fight for the Final Spots

As the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams, the battle for the final at-large bids is fiercer than ever. Miami surged into contention with a 48-28 rout of Louisville, where quarterback Cam Ward tossed five touchdown passes, including a 60-yard bomb to Xavier Restrepo. The Hurricanes, now 8-0, boast a top-10 offense averaging 45.2 points per game and enter projections at No. 9.

Notre Dame, independent but playoff-eligible, kept their hopes alive with a 31-14 win over Navy, relying on a balanced attack that saw running back Jeremiyah Love rush for 120 yards. At 7-1, the Irish’s resume features quality wins over Texas A&M and USC, landing them at No. 10 in mocks. Coach Marcus Freeman emphasized resilience: ‘We’re battle-tested. The playoff is about peaking at the right time.’

Other bubble teams like Alabama (7-1 after a close 28-24 win over Tennessee) and Notre Dame face scrutiny. Alabama’s defense allowed 421 yards, raising concerns, but their schedule includes rematches that could boost their rankings. Tennessee, dropping to 6-2 after the loss, now fights to stay relevant. In a

• projections from CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli, the final two spots go to Miami and Indiana (7-1 after beating Washington), edging out teams like Boise State and Army.
• Key stat: Miami’s +15 point differential in wins ranks fifth nationally, a strong NCAA metric for playoff selection.

These Week 9 results highlight how close the margins are— a single upset could swap Miami for a faltering SEC team like LSU (6-2 after losing to Ole Miss).

Path to Glory: Week 10 Matchups That Could Seal Playoff Destinies

Looking ahead, Week 10 looms as another pivotal chapter in the College Football Playoff race. Top-ranked Oregon faces a tricky road test at Illinois, where a win could lock in their No. 1 seed projection. Texas travels to Arkansas, a game where their depth will be tested against a physical Razorbacks defense allowing just 18.4 points per game.

Penn State hosts Washington, a matchup pitting two one-loss teams with playoff aspirations. A Nittany Lions victory would nearly clinch the Big Ten’s automatic bid. In the SEC, Alabama faces Missouri in a revenge spot after last year’s upset, while Ole Miss welcomes Vanderbilt—a tune-up before tougher foes like Georgia in a rematch.

Experts like ESPN’s Rece Davis predict that by week’s end, the top 12 could see minimal changes if favorites prevail, but underdogs like Indiana (hosting Michigan) and Miami (at Florida State) could crash the party. With the first official College Football Playoff rankings dropping on November 5, every snap in Week 10 carries playoff weight. The expanded format rewards conference champions and top independents, but at-large bids will hinge on strength of schedule and head-to-head results from weeks like this.

For fans, the drama is just beginning. As teams jockey for position, the NCAA’s new era promises more inclusivity, but the path remains brutal. Ole Miss’s upset and Penn State’s grit remind us: in College Football, Week 9 was a turning point, but the real playoff push starts now.